And Speaking of Christmas Miracles, It's Really Going to Take One: The Toteboard's First Look at the 2026 Senate Midterms

Start praying now.

THE LAY OF THE LAND

At first glance, there is much to suggest that 2026 could be a very good year for the democrats. The out-of-power party traditionally picks up ground during the midterms, especially with a lame-duck president. Trump’s popularity is predictably low – he has been mired about twelve percentage points underwater since early November. The republicans are defending nearly two-thirds of the seats on this fall’s ballot. And the democrats have significantly over-performed in the handful of off-year and special elections so far, most notably with the landslide flipping of two seats on the obscure Georgia Public Service Commission, a grassroots insurrection that caught the state GOP completely flatfooted. What’s more, it’s starting to look like reports of realignment, i.e., traditional democratic constituencies like young people, Blacks, and Hispanics bolting the party – are proving to be somewhere between premature and delusional. This is not to suggest that these groups are all ripe for the democratic taking, but there is no doubt that an anti-establishment, anti-incumbent fury is starting to bubble. The natives are indeed getting restless.  

Nevertheless, there are a number of structural factors that still leave the democrats at a significant disadvantage going into the Fall elections and beyond. Among them:

The Gerrymander Factor. Every single reliable poll over the last four months has shown democrats leading the generic congressional ballot, some by absurdly wide margins. But the republicans have so egregiously gerrymandered the House up to this point, that the democrats normally need to win the combined vote by a good two or three percentage points just to break even. And with numerous republican-led states either instituting or trying to institute more unethical redistricting (possibly with SCOTUS’s blessing), the bar may be rising higher with each passing week. The good news is that California and other states (Virginia, most notably) have begun fighting fire with fire, but it’s a pretty sad statement that it has become habitual and tacitly accepted in American politics that elections are now decided by which side can cheat better. On a side note, it’s probably not unrelated that every national election going back to 2014 – that’s seven elections in a row, including this coming one – has been a “change” election. The government is simply not working, the system is utterly broken, and the American people know it.

The Inequity Factor. There are simply more red states than blue states, thanks in no small part to those six capacious but sparsely populated contiguous Midwest and Upper Rockies tracts of hinterlands – Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska – that comprise barely 2% of the American population, but have a combined delegation that makes up nearly one quarter of the entire senate. And as the Toteboard noted last fall, with the current state of partisan division and the near extinction of ticket-splitting, we are likely looking at a more-or-less permanent republican senate for the foreseeable future. Although the republicans are defending more seats than the democrats, very few of those seats are realistically vulnerable. The dems need a net gain of four seats to take over the chamber, and that makes pulling an inside straight look easy.

The Trump Factor. Aside from the fact that a republican president makes it one seat more difficult for the democrats to win a working senate majority, there is literally no telling how much damage Trump will do to the country between now and election day, and exactly what stops he will pull out to sabotage a free and fair vote. This goes well beyond throwing money at seniors through new tax deductions or cutting checks to military personnel. Don’t be surprised when you start seeing intimidation of minority voters, harassment of election workers, voting roll purges, armed agents at polling places, and, of course, forever-war litigation before, during, and after the election.

The Court Factor. When the Trump administration attempts to do something unethical or illegal concerning the election (or anything else, for that matter), you can bet that his stooges in the courts will be there to back him up. In an unbelievably efficient subversion of the system of checks and balances, facilitated by testicularly challenged senate republicans, Trump has poisoned the Supreme Court for at least another generation and is currently flooding the appeals courts with his “superstar” ass-lickers. The result is a perverse cycle of like replicating like: Trump nominates underqualified allies to the court, who get confirmed by a complicit republican senate, and who then authorize virtually every one of Trump’s unethical and unconstitutional abuses of power. You only thought that ontogeny doesn’t really recapitulate phylogeny.

The Deplorables Factor: What can we say? Trump does everything from transforming the federal government into an Orwellian dystopia that metes out vengeance against political enemies, to shamelessly pardoning truly malevolent criminals for pledging allegiance to him, from waging quasi-wars on sovereign nations, to sending masked military agents to stalk, harass, and now murder American citizens on the streets of their own hometowns, and yet somehow 42% of the fucking American public still approves of his job performance? For all the criticisms of the “coastal elite” for failing to hear the grievances of “ordinary” Americans, the Toteboard has no hesitation about acknowledging pure contempt for this bigoted, misinformed, uneducable glob of citizens who will continue to stock the congressional shelves with putrid republican products. Because of this stubborn right-wing, fascist-sympathizing foundation, even a hoped-for democratic wave may ultimately amount to little more than a ripple.

THE SENATE BATTLEFIELD

And so now (finally), the Senate. As mentioned earlier, the democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain control of the chamber, and that is a huge, but not quite impossible, ask. This involves holding all of their current seats, including a vulnerable trio from purple-ish states (two made more difficult because of retirements), winning a pair of apparent toss-ups from republican incumbents, and somehow managing upsets in two more states that are currently ensconced in the “safe” or “likely” republican column. Clearly, to say this is going to be an uphill battle is a gross understatement, but there is a grain of historical precedent to allow for a small degree of hopefulness. In some ways, this is all reminiscent of 2006, when the disillusionment with Bush 43 gave the democrats a narrow path to victory, as long as they could completely run the table. And as you political junkies may recall, it was Jim Webb’s eleventh-hour victory over Virginia incumbent George Allen (facilitated, no doubt, by the Toteboard’s last minute donation to the former’s campaign) that allowed the democrats to flip a sixth seat and squeak over the finish line. So yeah, this would be a good time to start praying.

THE NECESSARY HOLDS: For democrats even to think of making any headway in the senate, they absolutely have to hold the seats in these states, all of which will be contested hard by republicans. From most to least safe:

New Hampshire: Four-term senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement opened up an initial scramble in both parties, though it looks like the race will probably end up as a contest between democratic rep Chris Pappas and long-ago vanquished republican dynastic heir John Sununu (not to be confused with his brother, the recent governor Chris Sununu, who resisted pleas from party bosses to run himself). The primary isn’t until early September, and New Hampshire’s electorate has always been predictably unpredictable, so strange things could happen, but for now the polls and analysts alike are tilting this one slightly blue.

Michigan: The retirement of non-descript two-term senator Gary Peters opens up the seat in this indigo/purple state that Trump narrowly won two out of three times. One would expect a blue lean in this particular cycle, but the democrats may have a messy early August primary on their hands, as the main candidates represent different constituencies within the party: four-term congresswoman Haley Stevens, who probably has the support of the national party and the pro-Israel lobby; state senate majority whip Mallory McMorrow, a left-leaning pragmatist who has deep support from fellow state legislators; and physician and perennial progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who has been the most critical of Israel of the three and has the support of Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, Keith Ellison, and a full slate of left-wing luminaries. Early polls show a close contest, as well as close hypothetical races against the apparently anointed republican candidate, former rep and 2024 senate runner-up Mike Rogers, though El-Sayed seems to be performing the weakest. The Toteboard would feel a lot better if those numbers start improving.

Georgia: Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock’s exhilarating twin run-off victories five years ago gave democrats short-lived control of the senate, but more importantly cemented the purple-ification of Georgia. Since then, Ossoff has been a “working” senator, i.e., spending a lot of time in the state, focusing more on quality-of-life issues (like education, healthcare, and agriculture) than strictly partisan ones, though he hasn’t been afraid to speak up about abortion, LGBT rights, and even animal welfare. He is popular among state democrats, and acceptable to a surprising chunk of republicans, who have an early May primary (and possible June runoff) to settle a fluid race among two US reps who are trying to out-MAGA each other and governor Brian Kemp’s inexplicable choice of a protégé, Derek Dooley, the son of a legendary UGA football coach. Republican primaries in Georgia do tend to produce some surprises, but for now, Jonny O just has to keep putting one foot in front of the other. The elephant(s) in the room: African-American turnout without Warnock on the ticket, and the quality of the parties’ respective gubernatorial nominees.

THE NECESSARY FLIPS: It is pretty universally understood that any shift in the senate balance of power toward the democrats has to begin with a pair of seats that the good guys have been eyeing for several cycles, but where they have consistently fallen short. Expect to hear the phrase “candidate quality” quite a bit over the next several months.

Maine: Will the Maine-iacs finally decide they’ve had enough of Susan Collins after five-terms of her toothless “moderation?” The democrats thought they had a good get with the term-limited governor Janet Mills, who famously took on Trump in a public confrontation, and would have set up an all-septuagenarian walk-a-thon. But Mills’s popularity in the state is somewhat tepid these days, and she is negotiating an unexpectedly strong challenge from Graham Platner, a tattooed, tell-it-like-it-is oyster farmer, harbormaster, and military vet who has been appealing to both progressives and Maine’s notoriously oddball independents, despite several impolitic moments. The early June primary, which follows ranked-choice rules, will be one to watch. There’s no telling how this one’s going to play out.

North Carolina: Obama carried this burgundy state during his first run in 2008, as did democratic senate candidate Kay Hagan, but the democrats have not won a presidential or senate race there since then. However, this may be the year, as frequent Trump-critic Thom Tillis has decided he has already suffered his fair share of abuse, and the democrats have recruited the genuinely popular former governor Roy Cooper, who looks likely to breeze through a clear field in the March primary. His probable opponent is erstwhile RNC chair Michael Whatley, who is currently trailing in the polls, but of course it’s still early.

THE NECESSARY UPSETS: You can do the math as well as the Toteboard. If the democrats hold all of their current seats and knock off both Maine and North Carolina, that still leaves them at a 51-49 deficit. That means they need two genuine upsets in red states in order to take the chamber. Naturally, the odds aren’t good at the moment, but the democrats are giving it their all to find the right candidates for the job. Here are the legitimate possibilities, listed from least to most miraculous:

Alaska: In what is probably the best and most exciting democratic get of this cycle, former congresswoman Mary Peltola, who narrowly lost her reelection bid last fall, is taking on incumbent Dan Sullivan, first in the August jungle primary, and then in the ranked-choice November election. Peltola has deep ties to the state’s indigenous and fishing communities, as well as proven crossover appeal. Even the where-are-they-now refugee Sarah Palin complimented her as “a real Alaskan chick . . . beautiful and smart and tough.” Alaska is historically pretty solidly red on senate elections, but they have voted outside the republican box before, most notably during the Obama 2008 landslide, when they went for democrat Mark Begich. This could be the miracle that gives hope for the other miracles.

Ohio: It’s hard to believe that Ohio went twice for Obama, because the state has transformed almost overnight into a lost cause. Nevertheless, Sherrod Brown, who narrowly lost his attempt last fall at a fourth term, is going head-to-head in a special election against Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor who was appointed to temporarily fill J.D. Vance’s seat. If this turns into a wave election, the Ohio electorate’s residual goodwill toward Brown could be enough to poke him over the finish line, but those midwestern states can be stubborn about returning ousted (albeit well-liked) senators to office. Just ask Russ Feingold.

Iowa. The unexpected retirement of Joni “we all are going to die” Ernst would have given the democrats a dopamine rush as recently as a decade ago, but Iowa appears to have surpassed even Ohio as the most rapidly reddening state in the country. Nevertheless, the democratic field has drawn some intriguing names beyond the usual batch of ambitious current and former state legislators,  including the market director for a popular country music radio station, who has landed the endorsement of former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich. But certainly, the figure who has the most potential to catch fire is state senator Zach Wahls, who has an inspiring personal story and crafted a terrific announcement video. Iowa is still likely to go in the fall for congresswoman Ashley Hinson, but this is still one to keep on the radar.

Texas. OK, the Toteboard is probably including this one more by force of habit than anything, as the long anticipated confluence of Black, Hispanic, and liberal urban voters that’s supposed to make this state legitimately competitive has yet to happen. But the state republican party is undergoing a bit of an internecine struggle, as four-term incumbent John Cornyn, who is conservative but more or less sane, is being primaried by the certifiable wackadoodle attorney general Ken Paxton. Also in the race is US rep Wesley Hunt, an African-American military vet and gerrymander beneficiary, who does have a war chest and some significant endorsements, but Cornyn and Paxton are pretty much gobbling up all the air. The democratic contenders, US rep Jasmine Crockett and state rep James Talarico, are hoping that whichever one prevails will get a good jump off the rubble of the republican in-fighting. The primary is in March.

Nebraska. OK, maybe we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel here, but independent candidate Dan Osborn has been polling surprisingly well against the lightweight republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. The democrats aren’t even fielding a candidate in this race, but are hoping that Osborn, with his working-class and populist cred, will pull off an upset and then choose to caucus with the dems (he has been mum about whether he would do that).

INTERIM CODA

So that’s how things look just shy of ten months before the election. But don’t expect that life will go smoothly between now and then. Trump is a monster, and he is only turning more monstrous. So for now, stay vigilant, don’t stop praying, and keep your lamps trimmed and burning.