It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like 2006: Can the Democrats Actually Take the Senate?

Going into 2006, the democrats had little reason to feel particularly optimistic about taking the senate in the upcoming midterms. From a purely mathematical perspective, the electoral map appeared less than promising. The republicans controlled the chamber by a daunting 55-45 margin, and the democrats actually had more seats to defend than did the republicans. What’s more, as George W. Bush had successfully spun the September 11 attacks into a test of American nationalism rather than a measure of his own administration’s failures, and John Kerry had just lost conclusively a seemingly winnable presidential election, it wasn’t quite clear how dramatically the country’s mood was ready to swing. Yes, Bush’s popularity was starting to wane, and yes, flipping the House looked like a very realistic possibility, but no one was seriously talking about a scenario where the democrats could flip the six seats necessary to take control of the senate and preempt potential vice presidential tie-breakers. At least, not at first.

But around this time twenty years ago, the American public eventually began to grow weary of the Bush-Cheney administration’s toxic mixture of incompetence and malevolence: the phantom WMDs and catastrophic Iraq war, the overreach of the Patriot Act, the botched response to Hurricane Katrina, the indifference to a tanking economy, the attempts to privatize social security and intercede in the Terry Schiavo case, and so on. Bush’s numbers continued to plunge throughout the year, and the democrats eagerly began to identify the most vulnerable targets: a past-expiration New England moderate (Lincoln Chafee, RI), a non-descript party hack completing someone else’s term (Jim Talent, MO), a scandal-ridden three-term windbag (Conrad Burns, MT), and a pair of annoying nobodies too closely associated with Bush and their own swing-state’s economic woes (Rick Santorum, PA; Mike DeWine, OH). And suddenly, the pundits began to take seriously the question of whether the democrats could actually run the table, and possibly pick up the necessary one more. “It is . . . possible,” one of the analysts offered decisively. As some of you may recall, the seat that eventually put the dems over the top came from Virginia during a nail-biting late-night tabulation, thanks largely to the now forgotten George Allen’s “macaca moment,” but one shouldn’t overlook the importance of the Proto-Toteboard’s eleventh hour donation to James Webb’s surging campaign. That last ad buy or door knock might have made the difference.

Fast-forward to today, exactly six months ahead of the November elections, and the midterms are beginning to look eerily like they did two decades ago, right down to the vulnerable New England moderate and the dull midwestern interloper, not to mention the recruitment of some interesting challengers with interesting resumes (including one who was a key part of the blue takeover back in 2006). And with Trump’s approval rating slipping to about eighteen points underwater (a drop of about four points in just the last couple of months), and even many republicans growing increasingly restive about the Iran war, two or three erstwhile “toss-up” states are starting to “lean democratic,” while some of those “lean republican” seats are transmuting into bona fide toss-ups, and even some of those previously written-off as “likely republican” have started looking more like merely “lean republican.” In other words, the senate is genuinely in play. Race to the WH (R2WH) currently shows it about even money which way the chips will fall, a tremendous improvement from when the good guys were 3-1 underdogs back in January. This is, to put it mildly, extraordinary. What the Toteboard had identified as  “a grain of historical precedent to allow for a small degree of hopefulness” may really be coming to fruition.

So where does that leave us on the math? Well, the republicans currently hold a 53-47 senate majority, which means the democrats need to engineer a net gain of four seats. This probably entails holding every seat they currently occupy and flipping four more – that has certainly been the conventional wisdom up to this point – but as the playing field continues to expand, there may still end up being more than one path victory in the event one of the democratic incumbents falters. The best way to think about it is that the democrats have to win in seven – in any combination – of the following thirteen heavily (or not) contested states. In other words, a baker’s half-dozen of the following baker’s dozen. A new feature in this update is that the Toteboard is now utilizing “power rankings,” no doubt inspired in part by the advent of baseball season, and which may offer some guidance to readers trying to figure out where to direct their campaign donations.

THE (ALMOST) NECESSARY HOLDS:

Georgia. While the incumbent whippersnapper Jon Ossoff has been building a sizeable war chest and consolidating support, two congressional back-benchers and one mediocre football coach have been duking it out for the republican nomination, with no one emerging yet as the clear favorite. The primary is barely two weeks away, but a surprisingly huge number of republican voters remain undecided, which suggests that the race just isn’t drawing a whole lot of interest yet among the party rank and file. But Georgia is still a highly inelastic state, and history has shown that even an idiot or an asshole with “R” next to his name can probably count on at least 47% of the vote come election day. All done and told, Ossoff probably has to meet Georgia’s notorious 30/30 threshold, i.e., winning at least 30% of the white vote, with African-Americans making up at least 30% of the overall vote. A pair of related unknowns are who will be either party’s gubernatorial nominee, and how enthusiastic minority turnout will be without Raphael Warnock at the top of the ticket. The Cook Political Report (CPR) and Sabato’s Crystal Ball (SCB) have both penciled this one as leaning blue, while R2WH, which is in general more bullish on the democrats, is willing to call it likely blue. Power ranking: 1 (Previously: 3)

Michigan: Three months ago, the Toteboard stated that “the democrats may have a messy early August primary on their hands” for this open seat, and so far the race has already gotten ugly and promises to get uglier, playing out as a microcosm of the party’s unresolved tensions over the Middle East, in a state with a significant Muslim population (and a not insignificant Jewish population). The erstwhile frontrunner and national party choice, congresswoman Haley Stevens, has taken a lot of heat for her unwavering support of Israel, while at the other extreme, non-politician (and national progressive darling) Abdul El-Sayed is doing no better after palling around with an antisemitic Twitch streamer. State senator Mallory McMorrow, running as a wonky pragmatist, progressive but less ideological, is hoping to emerge as the least damaged. Whoever wins the summer primary will be running against congressman Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Elissa Slotkin two years ago. All things being equal, the democrats should benefit from the wind at their backs in this purple-to-indigo state, provided they don’t shoot themselves in the foot too badly. CPR and SCB both classify the race a tossup, though R2WH tilts it somewhat blue. Power ranking: 4 (Previously: 2)

New Hampshire. Little has changed in the race to fill Jeanne Shaheen’s seat, with likely democratic nominee congressman Chris Pappas consistently maintaining a single-digit lead in the polls over almost-as-likely republican nominee John Sununu. It’s hard to imagine that a state that spurned Trump three times in a row will suddenly turn red in a likely democratic year, but stranger things have happened in the Granite State. All three analysts rate the race as leaning blue, though R2WH’s numbers are flirting with moving it into the “likely” category. Power ranking: 3 (Previously: 1).

THE (MOSTLY) NECESSARY FLIPS:

Maine. The big news here came just a few days ago when the once popular governor Janet Mills somewhat surprisingly gave up the ghost, clearing the way for the rough-hewn, oyster-farming populist Graham Platner to take on the always-there-when-we-don’t-need-her, so-called moderate Susan Collins. Platner’s outsider candor is playing well with many of the Maine-iacs, but only time will tell once the republican attack machine kicks into gear. The oysterman is currently leading almost every poll, though Collins has thus far proven as durable as a cockroach, one the Toteboard would very much like to see squished. CPR and SCB still call it a toss-up, though R2WH has it leaning somewhat blue. Power ranking: 5 (Previously: 4)

North Carolina. This burgundy state has broken democrats’ hearts for nearly two decades. They thought they had it in their pockets six years ago, until a month before the election when their Mr. Clean candidate acknowledged sending dick pics to one of his mistresses. For the open seat this time around, they’ve got their popular former governor Roy Cooper going up against the not-quite-as-popular former RNC chair Michael Watley, and it looks pretty good for Cooper, who is consistently leading the polls by high single digits or better. This could be the year. But perhaps because the state hasn’t turned blue in so long, the pundits are still pretty divided: SCB has it as a toss-up, CPR has it as leaning blue, and R2WH has it as likely blue. Power ranking: 2 (Previously: 5).

THE POSSIBLE UPSETS:

Alaska. So far, so good, as incumbent Dan Sullivan’s challenger Mary Peltola is gradually expanding her Blue Dog Democrat coalition. A Toteboard favorite, Peltola easily surpasses even Maine’s Graham Platner for having the most interesting resume of any senate candidate in this cycle. She’s an indigenous Yup’ik from the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, a winner of the 1995 Miss National Congress of American Indians pageant (she performed traditional dances in indigenous clothing), a former judge on the Orutsararmiut Native Council’s tribal court, and a commercial salmon fisherwoman who connects easily with Alaska’s working class. Polls are currently very close, with Peltola perhaps leading by a nares, though CPR and SCB both still classify it as leaning red (R2WH has it as a toss-up). If this is the one that decides the balance of the chamber, it’s going to be one long night for those of us in the eastern time zone. Power ranking: 7 (Previously: 6).

Iowa. This race for this open seat has changed significantly over the last few months. State senator Zach Wahls had been the favorite for the democratic nomination, but VoteVets has invested heavily in Josh Turek, a state representative and three-time Paralympics medalist whose father was damaged by Agent Orange in Vietnam. Turek has surged in at least one recent internal poll, but the primary is still a month away. The winner will face congresswoman Ashley Hinson in the fall, and she is still pretty much favored, but the state has been lightly polled and it has historically been considered highly elastic. CPR and SCR still see it as likely republican, but R2WH sees it as tilting red just on the edge of tossup range. Power ranking: 9 (Previously: 8)

Nebraska. This race has been sort of grandfathered into this category of Possible Upsets mainly because the democrats are not fielding a candidate and there is some small hope that independent working-class populist Dan Osborn might pull a Platner and pick off a snoozing Pete Ricketts. Even though the polls showed it dead even a few months ago (the state hasn’t been surveyed since then), no one really believes, at least not yet, that Osborn can pull it off in this deep red state, but the pundits aren’t quite betting the farm either. CPR and SCR both rate it likely republican (an improvement over safe republican), while the ever-optimistic R2WH puts it on the edge between likely and lean republican. Power ranking: 11 (Previously: 10)

Ohio. A one-time bellwether, this could be the state that determines if the democrats really have a chance. Sherrod Brown, who was instrumental in the 2006 democratic wave but lost his seat in the republican wave two years ago, is running in this special election against appointed incumbent and former lieutenant governor Jon Husted to complete J.D. Vance’s term. The party primaries are this Tuesday, but most observers believe those are mere technicalities before the unofficially anointed nominees can start their official campaigns. Polls show that things are close. The state now has a clear republican lean, but we’ll see if the strong candidate, Ohio’s moderate elasticity, and the general mood of the country are enough to poke Brown back over the finish line. SCB still has this one as leaning red, but Cook and R2WH both view it as a toss-up. Power ranking: 6 (Previously: 7)

Texas. This one has already been a doozy, and is likely to continue being a doozy. After a somewhat contentious primary, the democrats are going with James Talarico, an articulate (if not exactly charismatic) state rep who is also (!) a positive-message social-justice Presbyterian seminarian. On the other side, the two republican hopefuls, conservative but sane incumbent John Cornyn and dangerously ideological attorney general Ken Paxton are still bitterly slugging it out in advance of their runoff in a few weeks. The goomers are running neck and neck, with each hoping that Trump’s phantom endorsement will materialize and land on him. The repellent Paxton is probably the more beatable of the two in a general election, but the thought of him occupying a senate seat is so horrifying that it’s hard to say which bad guy to root for in this one. Hypothetical polls show that it could be close in November either way, but Texas is still Texas, and we’ll trust the numbers more at the end of the summer. The analysts rate this similar to Iowa, and the two states could be almost interchangeable for now in the power rankings: CPR and SCB both say likely republican, while R2WH sees it more as a lean than a likelihood. Power ranking: 8 (Previously: 9) 

THE POSSIBLE (OR DELUSIONAL) MIRACLES:

Florida. It would certainly be a fabulous repudiation of Trump if former National Security Council whistleblower Alexander Vindman could grab the nomination in August and then take down Ashley Moody, the partisan turncoat appointed to Marco Rubio’s seat. It would even be more gratifying than finding out that someone farted in all the air vents at Mar-a-Lago. Moody served two terms as the state attorney general before inheriting the senate seat, but most Floridians don’t know enough about her to have a clear opinion, so she is theoretically beatable. But counting on good things to happen in Florida is not usually the best strategy. Power ranking: 10 (Previously unranked).

Montana. It’s yet one more statement of how despicable republicans have become that barely anyone in the party raised an eyebrow when outgoing senator Steve Daines secretly withdrew from the race at (literally) the last minute, clearing the way for his chosen successor, US attorney Kurt Alme, and effectively preventing anyone other than token opposition from entering next month’s primary. Unfortunately, the democratic brand in this state won’t even sell in the bargain box, and their insistence on fielding a candidate instead of emulating Nebraska and supporting the quirky independent run of Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, puts this one virtually out of sight. Unless, of course, Montanans all decide they don’t like being jerked around and make a statement to that effect by punishing the Daines/Alme axis. Power ranking: 12 (Previously unranked).

South Carolina. A heavily tattooed and possibly hallucinating Habitat for Humanity fundraiser told the Toteboard that several state races, including the senate, are turning blue this fall. That’s hard to believe in a state that gave Trump an eighteen point margin and hasn’t elected a democrat to the chamber since Fritz Hollings in 1998. But if it’s going to happen, now is as good a time as any. Execrable incumbent Lindsey Graham is tremendously unpopular in his home state, and the likely challenger, Annie Andrews, is a smart, likeable pediatrician and mother who has no qualms about calling out Graham’s complicity in the Trump administration’s decimation of public health resources. Anyone who can say with such a straight face that Graham is full of shit is almost enough to convince the Toteboard to move to Seabrook Island just so it can vote for her. Power ranking: 13 (Previously unranked).

POWER RANKINGS SUMMARY:

1. Georgia (necessary hold)

2. North Carolina (necessary flip)

3. New Hampshire (necessary hold)

4. Michigan (necessary hold)

5. Maine (necessary flip)

6. Ohio (possible upset)

7. Alaska (possible upset)

*****************************

8. Texas (possible upset)

9. Iowa  (possible upset)

10. Florida (possible miracle)

11. Nebraska (possible upset)

12. Montana (possible miracle)

13. South Carolina (possible miracle)

CODA:

Given how painfully divided the country has been for some time, and given how tight the last presidential elections have been, perhaps it’s only fitting that we are heading for a midterm cycle that really could go either way. It’s going to be a long six months. But it’s also an extended opportunity – an opportunity for all of us to figure out how we can best make a difference during this stretch of time.