Eight More Weeks on Tenterhooks: The Toteboard's Midterms Update

At the beginning of 2026, the Toteboard suggested that while democrats were staring down the barrel of an unfavorable senate map, there was nevertheless “a grain of historical precedent to allow for a small degree of hopefulness.” Now, eight months, three Toteboard updates, and one really stupid war later, does it look like that hope is actually going to come to fruition? To answer that, we have to address four specific questions.

Question #1: Do the democrats really have a lock on the House? It looks good, but it’s not quite a done deal. Because of inherent structural disadvantages and republican gerrymandering (which goes back far longer than their recent SCOTUS-enabled romance with it), the democrats probably need to win the national popular vote by at least three percentage points to be able to clear a majority in the House. Fortunately, they have been leading the generic ballot by around six points since November of last year, and the republicans don’t really have an obvious playbook (beyond bribery) for chipping away at that number when Trump continues to do everything he can to alienate all but the most delusional of his deplorables. RacetotheWH (R2WH) gives the democrats a nearly 4-1 shot at succeeding, while Nate Silver’s new FLIPR model puts it even better, with both of them anticipating a final net gain of around 16 seats, settling at a 231-204 advantage. Sabato’s Crystal Ball (SCB) and the Cook Political Report (CPR) are still slow to officially acknowledge how significantly things are trending blue, but in a recent post on his personal Substack blog, Charlie Cook opines that the most likely scenario is for the democrats to gain a stunning 26-35 seats, though he doesn’t get into the weeds of exactly how this is going to occur.

Question #2: Do the Democrats really have a shot at the Senate? Absolutely, but don’t start measuring curtains. The miracle scenario has indeed become increasingly possible, though it is still a brick or two short of being confidently probable. Both R2WH and Nate Silver’s model currently see it as a coin toss, perhaps even tilting ever so slightly in favor of the democrats, though SCB just tossed out a sort of unofficial best guess that the dems will fall just short and stall out at 50 seats. Regardless of who is saying what at the moment, it’s really pretty eye-popping (and nerve-wracking) that no fewer than a half-dozen seats are legitimately in play, i.e., widely regarded as tossups (or close to it), and that number could ultimately creep higher. This is why it is increasingly important to keep our eyes on the power rankings. And to send postcards, and canvas, and donate money, and volunteer as a poll-watcher.

Question #3: Will we be able to trust the polls? Mostly, but only if we understand how to read and interpret them, and that’s where the meta-analysis of people like Nate Silver, Logan Phillips (R2WH), and Nate Cohn (NYT) comes in so handy, as they’re the ones who do all the heavy lifting of evaluating the quality of individual pollsters, tracking state-by-state fundamentals, following the money, identifying correlations among different states’ voting patterns, and so forth. And what they’re all telling us now is, much like the case two years ago, the polls indicate a number of very close races, but also a high level of uncertainly in those races. That is to say, even as the meta-analysts now show several races to be more or less deadlocked, i.e., the most likely outcomes being very close finishes, they also report honestly that it is well within the realm of possibility for those races to be decided by up to eight percentage points in either direction. And that is often hard for those who aren’t mathematically or statistically inclined to digest. To invoke the Toteboard’s now-famous (according to Chatgpt, anyway), pollster/weatherman analogy, if the meteorologists are forecasting a 20% chance of rain, we have to blame ourselves, not the weathermen, if we decide against bringing umbrellas.

Question #4: How badly will Trump attempt to interfere with the elections and their aftermath? This is the one that is probably causing a lot of sleepless nights, and well it should. Trump is already engaging in shameless attempts to suppress turnout among key democratic demographics, by targeting mail ballots, pushing aggressive voter ID restrictions, disseminating misinformation, and so on. It starts getting seriously scary when you think about possible Election Day scenarios: the seizing of voting equipment, sending ICE to polling places, even declaring a national emergency to take over election administration. But the truly nuclear, constitutional crisis, civil war level of interference may occur after the republicans lose the midterms, when Trump tries to invalidate the final results through rickety legal tactics, abetted by a cadre of deranged cronies who occupy key offices in the certification process. This could very well bring about the most severe test of American democracy that any of us have seen in our lifetimes.

UPDATED POWER RANKINGS:

These include indications of which races were originally classified as Necessary Hold, Necessary Flip, Possible Upset, and Possible Miracle. By way of reminder, the democrats need to win seven or more of the following thirteen to take the senate. Note: the Lucky Thirteen bid farewell to Montana, which the Toteboard deems hopelessly out of reach, but welcomes a new face, to keep us at a baker’s dozen.

1. Georgia (necessary hold). Still looking good for Jon Ossoff, though Georgia is still a very inelastic state and no one should be taking anything for granted. One concern is how Ossoff’s campaign will track with the gubernatorial race. The current conventional wisdom is that Ossoff may buoy the weak democratic candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, but the Toteboard does have some anxiety that it may in fact be she who ends up dragging him down. And of course, the malevolent republican attack machine has shifted into gear, churning out the usual cacophony of distortions and outright lies, this time enhanced (or degraded) by AI-generated swill. It will be gratifying to see Ossoff call Mike Collins a liar and a sleazebag during the scheduled early October debates, much as he called out the execrable David Perdue as a crook six years ago. The analysts all color this one different shades of blue. Previous power ranking: 1.

2. North Carolina (necessary flip). If the democrats are really going to win back the senate, the path to victory begins here. Former governor Roy Cooper still seems to be coasting against former RNC chair Michael Whatley, enjoying advantages in name recognition, fundraising, and polling. For the most part, Cooper is pushing the pocketbook issues, while Whatley is portraying Cooper as soft on crime (the latter did oversee a Covid-era prison release program) and immigration, i.e., the usual party talking points. At the moment, the players have not scheduled any debates, which would make it the first time in decades that NC senate candidates didn’t meet head to head. As with Georgia, the analysts all see North Carolina as leaning or even likely democratic. Previous power ranking: 2.

3. New Hampshire (necessary hold). Tuesday primaries went very much as expected, with mild-mannered congressman Chris Pappas and former senator John Sununu both winning their respective party’s nods by ample margins. Doomsayers (and fundraisers) have been buzzing a bit about the road to potential democratic ruin leading through the Granite State, in part because Pappas may have been damaged a bit by attacks from his primary challenger, a lightly funded molecular biologist with left-wing cred. They’ve also gotten their noses out of joint in response to a recent UNH poll giving Sununu a slight edge. But apart from UNH being a poorly rated pollster, the data collection itself looked pretty sketchy, e.g., canvassing a disproportionate number of republicans, reporting an absurdly high number of undecided voters. The good news is that Pappas vanquished his primary foe by about the same margin that Sununu vanquished his, but more importantly that Pappas tallied about as many votes as the total number of voters on the republican side, suggesting a significant enthusiasm advantage for the democrats. And as the Toteboard has said repeatedly, it just doesn’t seem possible that a state that rejected Trump three times could elect a republican senator during such a fraught period. The debate schedule is still in the works. Everyone still sees this one as leaning blue. Previous power ranking: 3.

4 (tied, listed alphabetically). Maine (necessary flip). The democrats seem to have landed more or less on their feet in the aftermath of the Platner meltdown, though the circumstances are still hardly ideal. The dodgy incumbent Susan Collins has a lot of money and some deep statewide connections, while fifth-generation logger and accidental nominee Troy Jackson is not exactly galvanizing on the stump. Nevertheless, Collins is saddled with decades of baggage, not the least of which is Brett Kavanaugh, and Jackson might catch on just enough with his anti-charismatic everyman Mainer appeal. A lot could depend on how the four scheduled October debates play out, which will probably offer Jackson’s best opportunities to make his case, and Collins’ best chance to portray him as not ready for prime time. CPR and SCB both call it a toss-up, with the latter’s Kyle Kondik offering an early non-binding prediction that Collins will barely hold on, though Nate Silver and R2WB both show it as around 2-1 in favor of Jackson. If this one stays red, we’ll start hearing the phrase “candidate quality” a lot in the democratic post-mortem. Previous power ranking: 6

4 (tied). Michigan (necessary hold). The second of the “candidate quality” candidates, media-savvy democrat Abdul El-Sayed checks the right buttons on most progressive causes, but it’s not a Toteboard hallucination that he can come off as kind of aloof, prickly, and/or insensitive to at least one traditional democratic constituency, and he still has many fences to mend after his ugly primary with Haley Stevens. Two months ago, the Toteboard opined that “it’s just a question of whether the democratic in-fighting carries through to the general election,” and that’s still very much in the air, even with republican nominee Mike Rogers tied much too closely to Trump during a possible blue-wave year in this purple-indigo state. Fortunately, the other Michigan senator Elissa Slotkin is working aggressively with Sayed’s campaign, trying to help him mend some necessary fences and broker an electoral ceasefire between the state’s sizeable Muslim and Jewish communities, though not a few political writers have questioned whether Middle Eastern politics will ultimately prove to be much of a wedge issue among the rank and file. The first of three scheduled debates occurs next week. Much like Maine, SCB and CPR peg this a tossup, while Silver and R2WH color it blue by 2-1, or better. Previous power ranking: 4

4 (tied). Ohio (possible upset). The Toteboard’s summary from four months ago (which it also invoked two months ago) is still pretty much an accurate description today: “The state now has a clear republican lean, but we’ll see if the strong candidate, Ohio’s moderate elasticity, and the general mood of the country are enough to poke Sherrod Brown back over the finish line.” The polls have definitely been trending toward Brown for quite some time, which seems to have been the cue for Elon Muskrat to start dumping a shitload of money into the race and dredging transgender bathroom issues out of the sewer. On the other hand, Brown has been tying accidental senator Jon Husted to data centers, which are becoming an increasingly hot-button issue in Ohio. No debates scheduled yet, and not sure if there will be any. As with Maine and Michigan, SCB and CPR call it a tossup, while Silver tints it blue and R2WH leans it even bluer. Previous power ranking: 5

7 (tied, listed alphabetically). Alaska (possible upset).One would think that Mary Peltola bettering (or battering) incumbent Dan Sullivan by more than eight percentage points in last month’s funky jungle primary, as well as the few recent surveys in this lightly polled state all going (slightly) her way, would cajole the analysts into turning more bullish (or at least as bullish as the Toteboard) on her candidacy. But even though Alaska has occasionally proven to be wildly elastic, no one seems ready just yet to bet the igloo that Mary will ultimately be able to outrun the state’s conservative fundamentals. No debates scheduled yet here either, though the voters probably already know both candidates pretty well. This is the only state that SCB, CPR, R2WH, and Nate Silver all regard as a tossup. Wowza. Previous power ranking: 7

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7 (tied). Iowa (possible upset). Paralympian medalist, state legislator, and Toteboard favorite Josh Turek is still shooting a thousand baskets a day and pushing his wheelchair to every corner of the cornfields, trying to convince enough Hawkeyes that Trump and the republican party have failed them on farm issues, tariffs, data centers, and so on. A recently released internal democratic poll actually showed Turek leading congresswoman Ashley Hinson by four percentage points, though most of the other current surveys think it’s going the other way by a similar margin. Something that may work toward Turek’s benefit is that the democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand seems to be leading in his race, and that could strengthen statewide democratic turnout. It will be interesting to see if the two debates scheduled next month manage to move the needle. The analysts are, so to speak, all over the map on this one. This is only state where SCB and CPR diverge, with the former still listing it as light red, but the latter shifting it into tossup range. Silver and R2WH also diverge slightly on this one, with the former tilting it red and the latter still calling it a tossup, albeit a red-tinged one. Previous power ranking: 8.

7 (tied). Texas (possible upset). The numbers have consistently been saying that healthy-minded seminarian James Talarico is tied with or even a pubic hair ahead of professional scuzzball Ken Paxton, but like the analysts on Mary Peltola’s chances in Alaska, and perhaps because the state is just so big, and just so carnivorous, the Toteboard can’t quite believe that Texans will really summon forth their better selves and elect a democrat. The candidates have three debates scheduled, including one next week, and those should be very interesting. Everyone shows this as a tossup, though R2WH tints it blue-ish. Nate Silver says this is currently the closest contest and the most likely tipping point state, a situation the Toteboard finds less than pleasing. Previous power ranking: 9

10. Kansas (possible miracle). This one has a similar profile to where Texas was six months ago. The surprise democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a highly influential Methodist pastor with a centrist profile, seems to have caught a little bit of fire, at least among the national media. As if to create a compelling moral juxtaposition, the NYT just ran an investigative piece exposing how republican incumbent Roger Marshall engaged in shady practices during his OB-GYN days, including charging poor patients usurious interest when they couldn’t keep up with their payments, garnishing wages, and even swearing out warrants for arrests. Kansas is normally as red as a strawberry poison dart frog, but Kansans have been known to occasionally moderate in the aftermath of corrupt tenures. Silver is actually the least dismissive of the analysts when it comes to Hamilton’s chances, currently giving him about a one in five chance. The coming weeks will determine if this a sleeper or a footnote. Previous power ranking: Unrated

11. Nebraska (possible miracle). There still hasn’t been any high-quality polling here all year, though a recent internal democratic poll showed a dead heat, and there’s still enough money coming in to show that incumbent Pete Ricketts isn’t taking democratic-backed populist independent Dan Osborn lightly. The two actually debated last week, during which time Ricketts repeatedly (and oh so cleverly) attempted to tar Osborn as “Democrat Dan,” and Osborn stuck to his working-class meat and potatoes issues and insisted that he won’t caucus with either party if elected. Everyone still has this one different shades of red, but we won’t really know anything until a legit pollster set foot in the state. Previous power ranking: 10.

12. South Carolina (possible miracle). Just by way of reminder, this is only here because “a heavily tattooed and possibly hallucinating Habitat for Humanity fundraiser” insisted the seat was in play about five months ago. The race now features a certain parity with two female political novices, but there is no such parity in the state’s partisan profile.  Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews is certainly campaigning her heart out, while the literal heir apparent Darline Graham tries to coast on her name, Trump’s endorsement, and an inelastic electorate. Don’t bet on Lindsey Lite accepting a debate invitation anytime soon. Previous power ranking: 12.

13. Florida (possible miracle). The democrats probably blew whatever miniscule chance they had by surprisingly rejecting Alexander Vindman in favor of progressive state representative Angie Nixon. Appointed incumbent Ashley Moodley is leading most polls by double digits, and unless next month’s (tentative) debate produces some atomic bombshells, Florida may soon be bidding its own farewell to the Lucky Thirteen. Previous power ranking : 11.

A NOTE ON CAMPAIGN DONATIONS:

Several readers have asked the Toteboard for recommendations about where their campaign donations could be most useful. In the past, the Toteboard has generally chosen the race, or races, most likely to flip or preserve the senate. But with everything so close at this point in the cycle, it’s not entirely obvious which race or races that would be. That said, here are a few different sets of criteria for narrowing down your choices.

The Toteboard Power Rankings. Candidates in one or more of the races clustered right around that magic number of seven wins from the thirteen states listed above. That would mean Alaska, Ohio, and Texas.

The Closest Races. The races that most analysts identify as tossups and that Nate Silver sees as currently within three percentage points in either direction. We’re talking here about Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Nate also identifies these as the most likely tipping point states, estimating a 68% chance that one of those will ultimately prove to be the difference maker.

Voter Power Index. Haven’t heard of this one? That’s how much power each individual voter has to influence the final outcome of the election. The thinking here is that you will get more bang for your buck if you donate to a less populous state, where the effects of your dollars may be felt more, rather than get swallowed up in a cavernous black hole. With this criterion in mind, Alaska is at the top of the list, with Maine a distant second, and Iowa and New Hampshire trailing behind them.

Financial Differential. At the moment, the democrats are outraising the republicans almost everywhere, in some places (like Georgia and Texas) by astronomical margins, though that could change quickly once the dirty PAC money starts rolling in. The most significant exception is Maine, where the democrats blew all their money on the primary and the subsequent mini-primary, but also Iowa, where Turek also had to race through a hard-fought primary marathon. The Democratic cushions get a little narrower in Michigan and, to some extent, Alaska.

So, take your pick, or your picks. There are six or possibly seven races that would all likely represent money well spent. And believe me, there’s no better feeling than seeing the candidate(s) you boosted poke over the finish line!