Long Night's Journey Into Day: The Toteboard's Final Thoughts on the Midterms

OK folks, here we are again. It’s been a long and often stressful election cycle, so let’s just get down to business.

The good news is that things are looking, well, good. The Silver Bulletin and Race to the WH, i.e., the two main websites that aggregate polls and generate analytically based forecasts, project the democrats as an eye-popping 20-1 favorite to take the House, and a not-so-shabby better than 4-1 favorite to take the Senate. These odds, which may yet change over the next eight hours, would have been unthinkable (by all but the Toteboard) about six months ago.

But on the other hand, several senate races are still very close – the Cook Political Report lists seven races as tossups – which leaves us with a very high degree of uncertainly. From a number crunching perspective, the Silver Bulletin reports that the candidates in six races are currently separated by three percentage points or fewer, a number that goes up to eight if we make it four points or fewer. Add in some unhealthy doses of late-breaking drama, like the vote-stacking mini-scandal in Alaska and the unforced intra-party drama in Michigan, and we all could end up watching our TVs very late tomorrow night.

The bottom line for now is that the democrats are likely to gain anywhere from two to nine seats (remember, they need a net gain of at least four), and there really are a lot of plausible combinations of outcomes within that range. Again, it’s not quite a slam-dunk, but the Toteboard would much rather be in the democrats’ shoes Tuesday night.

The Toteboard’s Final Power Rankings

The list here includes all the states that had one time or another appeared on the Toteboard’s power rankings this year, identifying each by its original competitive classification. The democrats need to win eight of the following fifteen in order to take control of the senate (assuming that PA PITA John Fetterman doesn’t shift his party affiliation).

1. Georgia (necessary hold)

2. North Carolina (necessary flip)

3. Minnesota (necessary hold)

4. New Hampshire (necessary hold)

5. Michigan (necessary hold)

6. Ohio (possible upset)

7. Texas (possible upset)

8. Maine (necessary flip)

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9. Alaska (possible upset)

10. Iowa (possible upset)

11. Kansas (possible miracle)

12. South Carolina (possible miracle)

13. Nebraska (possible upset)

14. Florida (possible miracle)

15. Montana (possible miracle)

Advice for Tuesday Night

As usual, tabulation will be uneven, though most states should have the bulk of their votes counted within a few hours of the times their respective polls close. On the other hand, it could be days before we know the final ranked choice results in Alaska. That said, here are a couple tidbits of Toteboard advice on how to process what is being reported.

1. Ignore the network counts of each party’s total senate seats. Instead, pay attention only to those fifteen on the power rankings list, until the democrats hit (or not) the magic number of eight. Note that if the democrats lose or appear to be in trouble on anything in the 1-5 range, it’s probably going to be a long and disappointing night. On the other hand, if they start winning things in the 11-15 window, it’s probably going to be a blue tsunami. But most likely, it’s really those 6-10 states where the chamber’s future will be decided and that we have to monitor with bated breath.

2. Be wary of early numbers, so as not to fall for a blue or red mirage. Listen for the broadcasters and live streamers identifying whether the recorded votes are early, absentee, or election day ballots, or which counties they come from, or which constituencies they probably represent. Note when they tell us that turnout is high, or low, among a particular demographic. Even pay attention to who is smiling and who is grimacing at candidate headquarters.

What’s Happening When (Eastern Time)

7:00:

  Georgia:

    Original classification: Necessary hold

    Power ranking: 1

    Prospects: Excellent

  South Carolina:

    Original classification: Possible miracle

    Power ranking: 12

    Prospects: Fair

7:30:

  North Carolina:

    Original classification: Necessary flip

    Power ranking: 2

    Prospects: Excellent

  Ohio:

    Original classification: possible upset

    Power ranking: 6

    Prospects: good

8:00

  Florida:

    Original classification: Possible miracle

    Power ranking: 14

    Prospects: Marginal

  Maine:

    Original classification: necessary flip

    Power ranking: 8

    Prospects: Good

  New Hampshire

    Original classification: Necessary hold

    Power ranking: 4

    Prospects: Very good

9:00:

  Iowa:

    Original classification: Possible upset

    Power ranking: 10

    Prospects: Good

  Kansas

    Original classification: Possible miracle

    Power ranking: 11

    Prospects: Good

  Michigan:

    Original classification: Necessary hold

    Power ranking: 5

    Prospects: Good

  Minnesota:

    Original classification: Necessary hold

    Power ranking: 3

    Prospects: Very good

  Nebraska:

    Original classification: Possible upset

    Power ranking: 13

    Prospects: Fair

  Texas:

    Original classification: Possible upset

    Power ranking: 7

    Prospects: Good

10:00

  Montana:

    Original classification: Possible miracle

    Power ranking: 15

    Prospects: Marginal

1:00 AM

  Alaska:

    Original classification: Possible upset

    Power ranking: 9

    Prospects: Good   

So, we don’t know for sure what’s going to happen, but let’s hope that tomorrow night marks the beginning of a few rays of light shining into all of our worlds. Until Wednesday morning, stay strong, stay alert, stay committed. And give someone a hug.