Three Weeks to the Midterms: Will It Be Jubilation, Apocalypse, or Somewhere in the Middle?

OK folks, let’s get right down to business. The midterm elections are in exactly three weeks, and things are looking good for the democrats, perhaps even very good. But it is still going to be a sprint to the finish line, and we really can’t exhale until a critical mass of candidates cross it.

At this point, the main numerically driven analytical models, i.e., those from Logan Phillips’s Race to the WH (R2WH) and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin (SB), have grown increasingly bullish about an imminent blue wave. The House is pretty close to a lock, with R2WH showing the democrats as nearly 8-1 favorites, while SB has it at better than 12-1, with each predicting a net gain of twenty or so seats. The overly prudent Cook Political Report (CPR) and Sabato’s Crystal Ball (SCB) are not going out on any limbs yet, but they too have noted the tides shifting significantly in favor of the democrats.

The Senate, which was more or less a coin toss five weeks ago, is also looking a whole lot better these days. The R2WH and SB models both see the democrats as nearly 3-1 favorites, with a likely net gain of five or six seats (they need four to retake the chamber), though betting markets are a little bit cooler. This is a stunning, though not entirely unpredictable turn of events. A blue congress may not be able to get much done in the way of real political reform, but it can provide a critical check on Trump’s ever-increasing madness.

How Optimistic Should We Be?

What does it mean concretely to say that the democrats are 3-1 favorites? Well, it may be best illustrated by looking at the flip side, i.e., that the republicans have a 1 in 4 chance of keeping the senate. That’s like dealing the cards at a bridge table and getting the best of the four hands. Or flipping two coins and having them both come up tails. Neither scenario is likely, but they’re far from impossible.

For one sobering dose of reality, these numbers are very similar to what Silver thought Trump’s chances were on the eve of the 2016 presidential election. In response to a reporter’s question back then about how worried the democrats should be, he replied that they should be pretty damn worried, offering an interesting analogy: If you told him that there was a 30% chance that his favorite bagel place was going to close, he’d be upset; but if you told him that there was a 30% chance that an asteroid would hit the earth and decimate all life on the planet, he’d be terrified, even though such an outcome was “unlikely.” Two more years of a republican senate could be closer to the latter than the former. So, perhaps we should all be optimistic, but terrified?

So, what could go wrong?

Monkey-wrench #1: Systemic polling errors. Right now, there really are a lot of states that could realistically go either way. SB puts two (almost three) states in the pure tossup category, while R2WH thinks there are three (almost four), SCB thinks there are four (almost five), and CPR stubbornly lists seven in that column. A not-unheard-of system-wide polling error of two or three percentage points could give the republicans just enough of a nudge to hang on to fifty seats. Of course, such a polling error could go the other way as well, which would make for a very celebratory night.

Monkey-wrench #2: Voter Suppression. Trump has already attempted to fuck with mail ballots, voter identification laws, and state election administrations, and he and his minions and Unterführern have threatened everything from seizing voting machines and dispatching ICE to polling places to declaring martial law and cancelling the election. While the more apocalyptic scenarios are pretty unlikely, it’s not hard to imagine a whole bunch of first and second generation American citizens simply choosing not to vote because they are petrified of being detained by ICE without due process, and having to spend serious time and money extricating themselves from a sinister government spiderweb. At the moment, Nate’s model doesn’t account for this kind of bullshit.

Monkey-wrench #3: Post-Election Criminality. A couple of weeks ago, two guys in an Ohio dog park got into an argument about politics, an argument that culminated with the Trumper shooting the other guy. Wow, an angry republican with a gun – what could possibly go wrong? Now imagine an angry and brain-damaged tin-plated dictator with delusions of godhood who has just suffered a blistering and humiliating defeat, armed with malevolent agencies and militias ready to do his bidding – what could possibly go wrong?

UPDATED SENATE POWER RANKINGS:

These include indications of which races were originally classified as Necessary Hold, Necessary Flip, Possible Upset, and Possible Miracle. Note that there is one new addition to the list, which means that the democrats need to win eight of the following fourteen in any combination to take the senate.

1. Georgia (necessary hold). Charlie Cook, now blogging independently of CPR, says to “stick a fork in this one.” Jon Ossoff has been looking increasingly statesmanlike, while still doing the nuts-and-bolts non-partisan work of serving his constituents. As a result, he has been consistently showing leads in the high single digits over his third-rate republican opponent, congressman Mike Collins. At a pair of recent debates, Ossoff stuck to his script and repeatedly hammered Collins for associating with racists and hiring white supremacists, keeping the hapless good old boy on his heels throughout the nights. SB and R2WH have finally rated this “safe democratic,” while SCB and CPR are stubbornly keeping it in the “likely democratic” column. Previous power ranking: 1

2. North Carolina (necessary flip). Cook’s fork is apparently big enough to stick in this one too. Popular former governor Roy Cooper has been consistently leading RNC apparatchik Michael Whatley by mid to upper single digits, and the republicans have reportedly redirected most of their funding out of the state. Somehow, the candidates have decided not to debate, instead attacking each other’s criminal justice records via sympathetic news outlets, but the trajectory has been pretty well set for a while. The four pundits all see this one as blue, with different shades from “lean” to “safe.” Previous power ranking: 2

3. New Hampshire (necessary hold). Democrats got a little nervous when old-style country club republican scion John Sununu pulled even in the polls with congressman Chris Pappas a few months back, but the last several surveys should let team blue breathe a little easier. Their first debate tonight was a mixture of policy differences and personal attacks, and early reports indicate that they probably fought to a draw, with more debates and shared town hall events coming soon. As the Toteboard has been saying all along, it’s hard to imagine a state that spurned Trump three times, even one as unpredictable as New Hampshire, enabling that cocksucker by sending a republican back to the senate. The analyst ratings here are almost the same as those of North Carolina, ranging from “lean democratic” to “likely democratic.” Previous power ranking: 3

4. Minnesota (necessary hold). This one really shouldn’t even be on the list. The state hasn’t elected a republican senator since 2002, which only happened become incumbent democratic liberal icon Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash less than two weeks before the election. And the last time they went republican for president was in 1972, when Nixon drubbed George McGovern. But lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan, who cannot escape her connection to unpopular governor and erstwhile veep candidate Tim Walz’s sinking fortunes, has found herself in an unexpectedly tight race against Michele Tafoya, a former cutesy sportscaster and political novice. Flanagan hasn’t actually fallen behind in any polls, but they’ve definitely been a bit too close for comfort. The first debate is later this week, and we can expect Flanagan to highlight Tafoya’s comments in favor of the January 6 insurrectionists and shifting positions on the Iran war. For all the ruckus, the analysts still agree that this one is likely democratic. Previous power ranking: Unrated

5. Michigan (necessary hold). The ugly contest for this open seat has only gotten uglier, as last week’s nasty debate featured Abdul El-Sayed calling Mike Rogers a “sock puppet” for Trump and a “cheerleader” for the Iran war, while Rogers stopped just short of accusing El-Sayed of being a Muslim terrorist. On style points, El-Sayed stayed relatively calm and on message while Rogers grew defensive and borderline histrionic. They’ll be doing it all again in a couple of weeks. El-Sayed seems to have a thin but stubborn lead in the polls, and as is the case with a lot of these middle-tier races, the data-driven analysts SB and R2WH see it as leaning or likely blue, while the pundits SCB and CPR both stick to the tossup column. Previous power ranking: 4 (tied)

6. Alaska (possible upset). Despite a recent NYT piece portraying Mary Peltola as bit of a domineering hothead, the tough-as-nails Alaska voters seem pretty unfazed. Peltola has somehow managed to keep the politics local with her “fish, family, freedom” message, much to the consternation of republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, who just can’t seem to tar her as an out-of-touch lower-48 woke liberal in this weird ranked-voting state. The first, and possibly only, debate is this coming Thursday, and it will be interesting to see what happens when the two go head to head. Everyone but CPR tints this one slightly blue. Previous power ranking: 7 (tied)

7. Texas (possible upset). Yes, Texas. The state may still officially be a republican stronghold, but we just can’t argue any longer with the fact that the morally compromised republican Ken Paxton has not led the democratic seminarian James Talarico in a single high-quality poll for months. Yes, the numbers have been close, but they have been consistently in Talarico’s favor. Remember when Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to Ted Cruz in a democratic year? Well, we have another likely democratic year, only this time Talarico is a stronger candidate than Beto and Paxton is a bigger asshole than Cruz (and the bar is pretty high for that one). Don’t expect these guys to debate any time soon, unless Paxton unexpectedly decides to show up for Talarico’s town hall on CNN tomorrow. Another mid-card contest where R2WH and SB think it leans blue, while SCB and CPR still think it’s a tossup. Previous power ranking: 7 (tied)

8. Ohio (possible upset). At the risk of turning redundant, this is another race in a red state that pits a strong democrat against a weak republican in a likely democratic year. Former senator Sherrod Brown is narrowly leading almost all the polls against appointed incumbent Jon Husted, with affordability topping the most important voter issues, but this state has seen some doozies of polling errors in the past. There are no scheduled debates, but Brown has gone after Husted on the usual republican dossier: a bribery scandal, a white supremacist staffer, and support for the Iran war. And where have we heard this before? SB and R2WH tilt it blue, while SCB and CPR call it a tossup. Previous power ranking: 4 (tied)

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9. Maine (necessary flip). The debates here have started, with desiccated incumbent Susan Collins accusing populist democrat Troy Jackson of being unprepared and not ready for prime time, and Jackson portraying Collins as ineffective and out of touch. The two probably fought the first debates to a draw, but Collins may have made an unforced error when she claimed to understand the hardships of Mainers struggling with health care costs because she went without insurance for a year way back in 1994. Jackson also branded as un-kosher Suzie’s claims that she brings home the pork, with his memorable one-liner that “we can’t eat road salt.” Jackson has been narrowly leading the polls, but Collins has over-performed them plenty of times in the past. And the analysts? No surprises here, as SB and R2WH tilt it blue, while SCB and CPR paint it a tossup. Previous power ranking: 4 (tied)

10. Iowa (possible upset). Democrat Josh Turek has run an excellent campaign, but Ashley Hinson is a wily and articulate adversary, so it may ultimately boil down to who wins the battle between the irresistible force and the immovable object, i.e., between the democrat with the wind at his back and the state that turned republican a decade ago. Turek and Hinson have engaged so far in a pair of pointed, but largely policy-centered debates (including one tonight), so Iowans are taking a good, long look at the candidates. Everyone rates this a tossup, and Nate Silver’s model shows it as the second closest contest in the country. Previous power ranking: 7 (tied)

11. Kansas (possible miracle). Holy shit, what is this one doing here? Well, part of it is due to the democratic candidate, the principled (and influential) Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton catching some degree of fire, and part is due to the churlish schmuck Roger Marshall stepping on his own dick with some really, really bad optics, i.e., charging usurious interest from and swearing out arrest warrants for former patients who couldn’t afford to pay him, and then turning around and stiffing the small bakery that catered his primary watch party six years ago. Yes, there are substantial policy differences between the two candidates, which will certainly come out at a second debate next month, and Hamilton may prove to be too theologically sane (e.g., non-Christians might be saved) for the Sunflower State, but the fact that this one is even on the radar is a testimony to how badly Trump has fucked things up for his own party. Amazingly, the analysts all rate this one a toss-up or leaning slightly red, and Nate Silver says it’s currently the closest single senate race in the country. Previous power ranking: 10

12. Nebraska (possible miracle). There’s still not a lot of high-quality polling in this nasty contest, so it’s still not really clear how seriously to take independent Dan Osborn’s upstart campaign against Pete Ricketts. But the republicans are pouring in some bucks, and Trump stopped in to shore up the incumbent, so at least someone is worried that Osborn might pull it off. Osborn did shoot himself in the foot when he was caught on a hot mic referring to a hypothetical rural Nebraskan as a “Billy Bob” whose life “sucks so fucking bad,” but it may not end up hurting him all that badly because so many rural Nebraskan’s lives do suck pretty fucking bad. The analysts think it’s leaning red, the pundits think it’s likely red. Previous power ranking: 11

13. South Carolina (possible miracle). Likeable pediatrician Annie Andrews got her best chance a couple of days ago, when she met Darline (brother of Lindsey) Graham in yet one more surprisingly personal and contentious debate. Picking up on Graham’s acknowledgement during a primary debate that national security wasn’t really “her thing,” Andrews zinged her with, “If your surgeon said that appendectomies aren’t really his thing, would you still hand him a scalpel? No.” Dr. Annie will probably prove to be too liberal (i.e., educated, rational, independent) for the wackadoodles in this Deep South plantation bastion, but it is inspiring to see her give it everything she has. If the wave becomes a tidal wave, this could be one surprise republican seat to get washed away. Previous power ranking: 12

14. Florida (possible miracle). Republican incumbent Ashley Moody ducked tonight’s scheduled debate against “social democrat” Angie Nixon, so she doesn’t appear to be too worried, but the natives could be getting restless about data centers, homeowners insurance, and property taxes. If the tidal wave becomes a tsunami, this one would be next. Previous power ranking: 13